What’s the Real Covid-19 Over / Under?  


Bigger Pie Forum | What’s the Real Covid-19 Over / Under?   | Kelley Williams
Sports betting junkies have withdrawal pains due to Coronavirus (Covid-19) social distancing.  It has shut down sports and much of the economy.  There are no games to bet on.  But you can still bet on sports derivatives.  Who will go third in the NFL draft?  Will Tampa Bay win more games this season with Tom Brady than New England without him?  Professional oddsmakers say no.  Their over/under for the Pats is 10 1/2 wins.  It’s 7 1/2 for the Bucs.
Professional oddsmakers’ over/under is usually close to the actual result.  It draws bettors on both sides so bookies can balance their book and make money on the vigorish (betting fee).  Too bad there’s not an over/under for Covid-19 metrics.  It would be a useful check against numbers coming from the President’s experts, the Center for Disease Control, the World Health Organization, reporters, and others in the Chicken Little business (i.e., the bad news sells business).
Prediction Markets used to provide professional oddsmakers’ handicaps of elections and other political events.  They were pretty accurate.  Much better than polls at predicting outcomes.  Politicians didn’t like it.  That may be why regulators shut it down.
On March 29th, presidential adviser Dr. Fauci predicted 100,000 – 200,000 US deaths from Covid -19.  He later increased it to 240,000.  That’s quite a range.  He wouldn’t make it as a professional handicapper.  His point spread is too big.
It’s reported that he and Dr. Birx, another presidential adviser, used the World Health Organization’s model for their early predictions.  That’s the abandoned model that predicted the 3.4% death rate that started the Covid-19 pandemic panic.  For what it’s worth, experts now seem to agree that the death rate will be 0.1 – 1.0% of cases.  That may be

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