MADISON—President Donald Trump's approval ratings are in the basement, and he could be impeached. But with about a year to go until Election Day 2020, it's too early to write off the tweeter-in-chief.
Recent New York Times/Sienna College polls showed that Trump remains strong in the six battleground states—Arizona, Florida, Michigan, North Carolina, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin—that are expected to decide the 2020 election.
These are the six closest states that flipped from Democratic to Republican in 2016. In these states, what the polls show about the incumbent and his three leading Democratic challengers includes:
— Joe Biden leads Trump by 2 points among registered voters. This is within the margin of error (2.5 points) and is considered a tie between the two candidates.
— Trump leads Elizabeth Warren by 2 points among registered voters, the same margin as his victory over Hillary Clinton in these states in 2016
— Trump and Bernie Sanders are tied among registered voters, but Trump leads among likely voters.
In national polls, Biden leads Trump by 9 points. But, as the 2016 election demonstrated again, popular vote polls are largely meaningless. U.S. presidential elections are decided in the Electoral College. Polls show Trump's lead in the Electoral College may have grown since 2016. There are many things that could change before 2020. But in the last three presidential elections head-to-head polls a year before the vote have been as close to the final result as those taken the day before.
The Democratic-controlled House is currently holding an impeachment inquiry into Trump's dealings with Ukraine. The goal, clearly, is to knock out Trump before Election Day. I'd rate the likelihood of the House impeaching the president as high.
The case would then move to the Republican-controlled Senate for a trial. A two-thirds vote for conviction would be required to oust Trump. The